In an in-depth analysis of the Australian real estate landscape for 2024, Anna Porter, a seasoned market commentator and valuer at Suburbanite, offers a comprehensive outlook for various sectors of the property market. Her insights aim to guide a diverse audience including everyday Australians, investors, and first-time homebuyers through the complex terrain of property investment in the upcoming year.
Porter’s experience as a former valuer has deeply influenced her perspective, particularly witnessing the impact of mortgagee in possessions on families. She emphasizes the importance of informed decision-making in the face of rising interest rates and cost of living, which have already led to an increase in mortgagee in possession sales.
Highlighting key areas for potential growth, Porter identifies Adelaide, Perth, and Brisbane as markets poised for robust gains in 2024. She notes, “We still have eyes on Adelaide coming into 2024 as it has all the drivers for a solid investment market. This growth will be matched in Perth and Brisbane where we have seen some of the strongest market gains over 2023.” Porter attributes this to factors like employment growth, housing affordability, and strong rental returns, making these cities attractive to a broad spectrum of buyers and investors.
Conversely, Porter foresees challenges for the Hobart and Darwin markets, anticipating significant downturns. She points out the lack of diverse job creation and infrastructure spending as contributing factors to their declining performance.
Sydney’s property market presents a mixed picture. Despite a turbulent start in 2023, Sydney witnessed an upturn towards the year’s end. Porter cautions, “The lack of housing supply will create growth in the front end of 2024; however, this will not be enough to save the Sydney market in the back end of the year.” She predicts modest gains in early 2024, with mortgage stress likely to exert downward pressure on prices later in the year.
Melbourne, mirroring Sydney’s trends, is expected to see modest improvements. However, the future of both markets hinges significantly on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decisions.
A key observation by Porter is the potential in the industrial real estate and senior living sectors, both poised for growth due to demographic shifts and market dynamics. On the contrary, she advises caution regarding the childcare sector, predicting a possible oversupply, and the building sector, which faces challenges due to new energy efficiency frameworks.
Porter’s final word of caution pertains to house and land packages, highlighting risks in the current lending environment. She concludes, “Finance approvals are not secure and if your circumstances change or the value changes between buying off the plan and settlement, you may not be able to complete the purchase. This will be a costly mistake.”