Australian home prices surge for the thirteenth consecutive month

Australian dwelling prices have surged for the thirteenth consecutive month, with a noticeable 0.6% increase across the eight capital cities in February. This marks a significant trend of price rises, with Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth experiencing strong growth. In contrast, Sydney saw more modest increases and Melbourne’s prices remained almost unchanged throughout the month.

Since January 2023, home prices have climbed by 10.7%, reflecting a remarkable recovery despite the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s substantial rate hikes. The lack of dwelling construction to match Australia’s population growth has led to this surge in home prices, alongside very low vacancy rates and sharp increases in rents nationwide.

This imbalance between housing supply and demand has propelled home prices upwards, despite a considerable deterioration in affordability. According to CoreLogic, this resilience contrasts with the previous fall in prices during 2022, highlighting the divergence from the expected impact of the RBA’s tightening cycle.

CoreLogic’s report underlines the unique situation where prices have continued to rise even as the RBA has elevated the cash rate by 425 basis points in less than two years. The strain on housing affordability, with borrowers’ capacity reduced by approximately 30%, contrasts with the upward trend in home prices due to the pronounced imbalance between housing supply and demand driven by net overseas migration.

The resurgence of interest in the housing market spans across various buyer segments, including owner-occupiers, investors, and first home buyers. The report also notes increased activity from foreign buyers, with a significant bump in new housing market sales to foreign buyers reaching a six-and-a-half-year high in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Price growth has been uneven across the country, with Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide still on an upward trajectory, while Sydney’s growth has been more tempered, and Melbourne’s prices have largely plateaued.

This divergence extends to different property types, with both houses and units across the eight capital cities experiencing similar gains in February. The report highlights that regional Australia has also seen a firming in prices, with a notable increase in the CoreLogic regional benchmark index.

The housing market’s dynamics reflect a complex interaction between tightening monetary policy and stubbornly strong demand fueled by population growth and housing supply shortages. This condition sets the stage for continued discussions on housing affordability and market sustainability in the face of aggressive monetary policy adjustments.