
According to predictions by a prominent buyer’s agent, Brisbane is on track to overtake Perth as the leading hotspot for property investors in Australia. This development is underscored by Brisbane’s median property price surge of 15.9% over the year to March, trailing slightly behind Perth’s impressive 19.8% increase, as reported by CoreLogic.
George Cherchian, from James Chase Buyer’s Advocacy, pinpoints four key factors that suggest Brisbane’s property market is warming up for more robust growth.
Firstly, Queensland’s population witnessed a 2.7% increase in the year to September, slightly above the national growth rate of 2.5%, as per the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This demographic expansion is anticipated to persist, with Brisbane City Council forecasting a 20% population rise over the next two decades, inevitably escalating the demand for housing.
Additionally, the Sunshine Coast has seen an unprecedented wave of net internal migration up to December, according to the Regional Movers Index. This trend is expected to indirectly augment Brisbane’s market as new residents of the Sunshine Coast may also seek properties in Brisbane.
A concerning aspect, however, is the notable decline in home building approvals. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics indicates a 9.5% drop in approvals from 37,167 in the year leading to January 2023, to 33,623 by January 2024. This reduction highlights a growing disparity between supply and demand in the housing sector.
Cherchian elaborates on the reasons behind Perth’s recent property market boom, attributing it to a demand significantly surpassing supply. A combination of undervalued market conditions attracting investors, population growth fuelled by foreign migration, and a lull in home-building activities has led to a sharp price increase. However, he cautions, “This kind of extreme price growth can only last for so long.”
Looking ahead, the dynamics between the Perth and Brisbane markets are poised for a shift. “While Perth’s growth story still has quite a bit further to run, it’s only a matter of time before the pace of growth slows,” Cherchian states. In contrast, Brisbane faces no immediate relief from supply pressures. The city’s strengthening economy, bolstered by significant infrastructure projects, including preparations for the 2032 Olympics, is likely to entice more interstate migration.
Moreover, an insufficient rate of increase in property listings, coupled with a dwindling pipeline for future housing due to the decline in building approvals, sets the stage for Brisbane to potentially eclipse Perth’s price growth by 2025.
Cherchian predicts, “Once investors recognise that Brisbane has more medium-term growth potential than Perth, we should start to see some of that west-coast demand switch back to the east coast, which will further tilt the scales in Brisbane’s favour.”
This forecast heralds a significant shift in the landscape of Australia’s property investment sector, indicating Brisbane’s rising appeal as a strategic location for long-term investment.