Brisbane buyers face $180k income hurdle to enter property market by 2026

Brisbane households will need to earn more than $180,000 a year to afford an average home by early 2026, according to new forecasts that predict rising property prices in the lead-up to the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

Finder.com.au’s modelling of projections by SQM Research found the average gross annual income required to buy a home in Brisbane would jump from $167,351 to $180,732 in 2026 — an increase of $13,381 in just one year.

The analysis factored in expectations of two 0.25 percentage point interest rate cuts in 2025 and a modest fall in rates from 6.1 per cent to 5.6 per cent. It assumed a 30-year loan with a 20 per cent deposit and considered housing “affordable” if repayments consumed no more than 30 per cent of gross income.

Finder insights manager Graham Cooke said the projected increases would further strain affordability for would-be buyers.

“Needing to earn that much more in a single year will make buying a home even more of a struggle,” he said.

“It’s already a challenge and this will make it even more so.”

“It’s already impossible in most places to buy a house on a single income. The (notion) of one job being enough to get into the market is long gone, unless it’s an apartment.”

The research flagged suburbs close to Olympic infrastructure as likely hotspots for price growth, with forecasts of a 16 per cent increase in Fortitude Valley, 14 per cent in Bowen Hills, and 13.5 per cent in Chandler.

To buy in Fortitude Valley, household income would need to rise by $45,500 to $510,900 by 2026, while Chandler would require a $44,000 increase to $633,696.

PRD chief economist Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo said these gains would price many Brisbane locals out of the house market.

“Local Brisbane wage growth will struggle to keep up with the price growth,” she said.

“Already, most of these places are considered a premium market. For example, Herston, with a median house price of $1.3m and Greater Brisbane at just under $1m, which means that it is already considered not the most affordable option.

“What we may see is an increase in interstate and international buyers who view million-dollar prices as something more affordable relative to their original hometown.”

Dr Mardiasmo said buying now in suburbs near Olympic projects could be a strategic move.

“There is merit looking into these areas now, not only before prices go up further (as it historically has done for other key Olympics suburbs), but also because new stock may be limited in the near future,” she said.

“We know it takes time to build, and with the added infrastructure projects taking up more of our construction industry, plus Brisbane’s new dwelling costs rising in the past three months, new residential builds may be delayed longer than anticipated.”

More conservative projections from KPMG suggest a $5,400 income rise would be needed in Brisbane by the end of 2026 to stay ahead of house price growth, or $2,200 more to keep pace with the apartment market.

The impact of the 2032 Olympics is also expected to be felt beyond Brisbane, with regional areas including parts of the Gold Coast, Cairns, Townsville, Mackay, Maroochydore, Rockhampton and Maryborough flagged as growth zones.

Place Estate Agents CEO Damian Hackett said key suburbs such as Herston, Kelvin Grove, Spring Hill, Bowen Hills, Fortitude Valley, Woolloongabba, East Brisbane and Kangaroo Point were poised for strong growth.

“These infrastructure developments will enhance connectivity across Brisbane, creating prime residential opportunities that will transform the city’s real estate landscape,” he said.

Real Estate Institute of Queensland CEO Antonia Mercorella said the Games blueprint would have a lasting impact on property values.

“The announcement of this plan marks a turning point, sparking renewed optimism and excitement in Queensland and Brisbane as an Olympic host city, and we expect this momentum will be reflected in growing interest in our local real estate market,” she said.