Brisbane and Adelaide surge as Sydney and Melbourne markets soften, new report reveals
By
Drew Hendrey, Managing Director of Residential, Herron Todd White
Australia’s prestige property market is currently experiencing a notable shift, with Brisbane and Adelaide emerging as the frontrunners in market sentiment, while Sydney and Melbourne are witnessing a cooling trend. This is according to the inaugural Herron Todd White (HTW) Prestige Property Monitor, which offers a fresh perspective on the dynamics of the country’s high-end real estate sector.
The HTW Prestige Index, which forms the backbone of the report, is a sentiment reading derived from the insights of the firm’s seasoned valuers across major capital cities. The first index for February 2026 presents an average national prestige reading of 6.6 out of 10, categorising the national market as “Warm.” However, this overall score conceals significant variations among the different capitals.
Leading the charge are Brisbane and Adelaide, both registering “Hot” sentiment scores of 8. Perth is trailing slightly behind with a “Warm” score of 7. In stark contrast, Sydney and Melbourne have recorded a more subdued “Balanced” reading of 5. This divergence highlights the evolving landscape of Australia’s prestige property market.
Drew Hendrey, HTW’s Managing Director, Residential, remarked on the intriguing shift in market dynamics. “We are seeing a two-speed market at the top end across the big cities,” Mr Hendrey said. “While the prestige markets in Sydney and Melbourne are taking a breather under the weight of economic uncertainty and affordability pressures, cities like Brisbane and Adelaide are experiencing a surge in confidence.”
This trend, according to Mr Hendrey, reflects broader population shifts and a reassessment of lifestyle and value by high-net-worth buyers. The subdued start to 2026 in Sydney is particularly noteworthy, with a noticeable decline in listings and sales above the $15 million mark compared to previous years. “The first half of 2026 is expected to remain subdued in Sydney’s lower-end prestige market in the $5 million to $10 million bracket, as high inflation and interest rates bite,” he explained.
Melbourne is also aligning with broader market conditions, with sentiment and transaction volumes at the upper end tempered by concerns over state property taxes and land tax obligations. Meanwhile, Brisbane is experiencing robust demand for high-quality, architecturally designed modern homes. Agents have reported strong buyer interest and minimal decline in enquiries over the holiday period.
“Brisbane’s prestige market is firing on all cylinders,” Mr Hendrey stated. “There is a depth of demand for premium properties that is keeping the market exceptionally buoyant.” Similarly, Adelaide has emerged as a standout performer, attracting both local and interstate buyers who perceive relative value compared to larger capital cities. “Adelaide is increasingly being recognised as a prestige destination, and we expect to see this trend continue as more high-quality stock comes to market,” Mr Hendrey added.
Perth remains a strong market, with firming conditions driven by high demand and a chronic under-supply of premium properties. This situation underscores the unique dynamics at play in the prestige property sector, which often acts as a barometer for broader real estate activity and economic confidence.
Mr Hendrey emphasised the importance of the HTW Prestige Property Monitor as a tool for understanding these nuances. “The prestige market operates on a different set of drivers to the general market,” he noted. “By capturing the sentiment of our most experienced directors on the ground, the HTW Prestige Index provides a unique and timely insight into the health of this important sector.”
As the year progresses, the HTW Prestige Property Monitor will likely continue to offer valuable insights into the shifting landscapes of Australia’s luxury property markets, highlighting the distinct drivers and challenges faced by different regions.