Brisbane property market shows resilience amid complex economic conditions

Brisbane continues to demonstrate its resilience as one of Australia’s top-performing property markets, despite facing a challenging economic environment. The latest data from Cotality’s Home Value Index, up to 31 March 2026, reveals a 1.8 per cent increase in Brisbane dwelling values for the month, surpassing February’s 1.6 per cent rise. This growth has propelled the annual gain to 19.0 per cent from 17.3 per cent, with the median dwelling value now standing at $1,101,151, a significant increase from $1,080,538 in February. Over the past five years, Brisbane dwelling values have surged by an impressive 85.3 per cent.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has added to the economic complexity by implementing a 25 basis point rate hike in March, raising the cash rate to 4.10 per cent. This decision comes in response to mounting inflationary pressures that have been building since the latter half of 2025. The RBA Board has indicated that inflation is expected to remain above target for an extended period, with risks skewed towards prolonged high inflation. In parallel, the ANZ–Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index plummeted to its lowest level on record in March, a level not seen since the series began in 1973. This decline is attributed to concerns over the Middle East conflict, rising energy costs, and the prospect of further rate increases.

These economic pressures have led SQM Research to adjust its national housing forecasts for 2026 downward. The revised base case now predicts weighted capital city price growth of 0 per cent to +3 per cent for the year, a reduction from the previous projection of +6 per cent to +10 per cent. Despite this national outlook, Brisbane is expected to outperform the average, with growth anticipated between +7 per cent and +11 per cent, although this is a downgrade from the earlier forecast of +10 per cent to +15 per cent.

“The key drivers of the revision include energy price pass-through, limited wage growth amid AI-driven changes to labour demand, and broader affordability erosion,” explained an SQM Research spokesperson. “While potential government energy rebates may offer some relief, we do not expect them to fully revive market momentum.”

Cotality data indicates that auction clearance rates in Brisbane averaged 65.55 per cent throughout March, down from February’s 70.4 per cent, yet still higher than the same period last year. This decline reflects a more cautious buyer mindset in the face of rising interest rates, international uncertainty, and proposed policy changes around negative gearing and capital gains tax for property investors. Despite the softer auction results, several properties that failed to sell at auction still attracted multiple registered bidders, indicating a gap between buyer and seller price expectations rather than a lack of interest.

Listing volumes in Brisbane remain close to historic lows, with total advertised stock approximately 21.9 per cent below levels from a year ago. This is in stark contrast to Sydney and Melbourne, where volumes align more closely with long-term averages. This ongoing structural undersupply, in place since 2020, continues to drive competition for quality properties in Brisbane.

Investors currently account for 40.1 per cent of Queensland finance commitments, while first home buyers, spurred by incentives introduced in October 2025, represent 27.3 per cent of commitments, up from 25.3 per cent in February. This increase is fuelling strong demand in the sub-$1 million bracket.

Brisbane’s median dwelling value of $1,101,151 at the end of March reflects monthly growth of 1.8 per cent, quarterly growth of 5.1 per cent, and annual growth of 19.0 per cent. These figures mark improvements over February’s respective figures of 1.6 per cent, 4.8 per cent, and 17.3 per cent. PropTrack’s independent Home Price Index confirmed positive monthly growth of 0.7 per cent for Brisbane in March, consistent with the Cotality trend.

Cotality’s stratified index for the three months to February 2026 shows Brisbane’s lower quartile dwellings rose 6.4 per cent, the middle 50 per cent gained 5.5 per cent, and the top quartile grew 3.4 per cent. “This pattern reflects serviceability constraints continuing to direct buyer demand toward more affordable price points,” noted a Cotality analyst. “First home buyer activity below the $1 million mark across Brisbane reinforces this trend.”

In the house market, the median value in Greater Brisbane rose to $1,207,718 in March, up from $1,175,981 in February. Monthly growth of 1.7 per cent was 0.2 percentage points above February’s 1.5 per cent. The quarterly gain improved to 4.9 per cent from 4.6 per cent, and annual growth of 18.5 per cent accelerated from 16.7 per cent the previous month, placing Brisbane second only to Perth nationally.

Brisbane’s unit market remains a strong performer, with the median unit value reaching $865,548 in March, up from $844,844 in February. This represents monthly growth of 2.0 per cent, a slight easing from February’s 2.1 per cent. The quarterly gain of 6.1 per cent improved from 6.0 per cent, and annual growth of 21.5 per cent accelerated from 20.1 per cent, placing Brisbane second only to Perth among the capitals.

Brisbane’s rental market remains under pressure, with the vacancy rate for Greater Brisbane recorded at 0.9 per cent in February, one of the tightest readings of any capital city nationally. Annual house rent growth accelerated to 6.7 per cent in March, up from 6.3 per cent in February. Annual unit rent growth of 6.7 per cent represents a slight easing from 6.8 per cent the prior month. Both measures continue to outpace inflation, compounding affordability challenges for renters.

“Gross rental yields have compressed slightly as capital value growth outpaces rent increases,” a Cotality spokesperson noted. “Houses are currently returning 3.1 per cent gross, down from 3.2 per cent in February, and units are yielding 3.9 per cent, down from 4.0 per cent.”

As Brisbane enters a more complex phase, the city’s property market continues to show strength, driven by a chronic undersupply and strong demand. However, rising interest rates, low consumer confidence, and economic uncertainties are expected to moderate the pace of growth in the coming months.

This article was first published on Smart Property Investment, a sister-brand of Property Buzz.