Australia’s property market enters 2026 with resilience and uneven growth

Australia’s property market has kicked off 2026 with a complex mix of resilience and uneven growth across the states, as highlighted in the latest PIPA National Market Update. The report, which draws insights from market experts and PIPA members, paints a picture of a national market characterised by low stock, strong migration, and fluctuating affordability. These factors continue to bolster property prices despite evolving economic conditions.

PIPA Chair Cate Bakos provided an overview of the national landscape, highlighting the unique conditions in each state. “In New South Wales, buyer demand remains firm despite affordability pressures, with Sydney values now just 0.1 per cent below the record peak observed in November 2025,” she said. This sentiment is echoed across various states, with each exhibiting its own set of challenges and opportunities.

In New South Wales, Rich Harvey, CEO of Propertybuyer.com.au, noted the steady buyer engagement and price movements shaped by low stock levels and ongoing demand. “Sydney dwelling values increased slightly by 0.2 per cent over the quarter to February 2026. On an annual basis, values have risen 6.4 per cent, with a monthly increase of 0.2 per cent,” Harvey stated. He also pointed out the variations across the city, with a penthouse at Darling Point selling for $40 million off-plan, while Penrith’s median house price has just cracked $1.1 million. Despite economic pressures, Sydney’s rental market remains tight, with annual rent growth at 5.8 per cent.

Victoria presents a more varied landscape. Antony Bucello, Director at National Property Buyers, described Melbourne’s market as resilient but mixed, with solid auction clearance rates and uneven suburb-level price growth. “According to national market data, Melbourne’s median house prices continued to rise modestly in early 2026, contributing to the broader trend of capital city price growth,” Bucello said. He noted that while demand remains strong for well-located family homes, the prestige market is feeling the impact of tighter borrowing capacity.

Queensland is experiencing a surge, driven by intense buyer competition and government incentives. Fern Walcott, Buyers Agent & QPIA at Exclusive Property Buyers, highlighted the high demand in Brisbane, where properties are often sold within a week of the first open home. “Brisbane dwelling values are currently at an all-time high, with a median value over $1,080,000,” Walcott said. The state’s rental market remains tight, with vacancy rates at one per cent, and rents rising by 6.4 per cent in Brisbane over the past year.

Western Australia stands out as the nation’s top performer, with extreme undersupply and rapid population growth driving annual price gains of around 22 per cent. Laura Kolomyjec, Property Specialist & QPIA at Dynamic Advisory, attributed Perth’s robust performance to a “perfect storm” of factors. “Recent data from Cotality shows Perth is still leading the country when it comes to price growth,” she said. The state’s rental market also reflects tight conditions, with significant rental growth outpacing wage increases.

In South Australia, the market is gaining momentum with the help of election-driven housing incentives. Andrew Sorensen, Real Estate Agent and Auctioneer at Prospa Property Advisory, reported a strong start to 2026, aided by RBA rate cuts and political promises. “Greater Adelaide’s median house price now sits at $980,815,” Sorensen noted, with suburbs like Salisbury and Tea Tree Gully leading the charge in growth.

Tasmania is showing signs of recovery after earlier corrections, with tightening listings and strong regional demand underpinning a measured recovery. David Timar, Director & Buyer’s Agent at Timar Buyers Agency, highlighted the cautious optimism in Tasmania’s market. “Hobart’s median dwelling value now sits at $722,339, having risen 2.6 per cent over the past quarter,” Timar stated. The state’s rental market remains critically tight, with a vacancy rate of 0.3 per cent.

Finally, in the ACT, the market continues its pattern of steady growth. Brady Yoshia, Founder & CEO of Brady Marcs Buyers Advisory, described Canberra’s market as one of stability and consistency. “According to Cotality’s January 2026 market data, the median dwelling value in Canberra currently sits at around $884,844,” Yoshia reported. Despite tight supply, the market offers solid returns for investors, with annual rental growth at 2.8 per cent for houses.

Across Australia, the property market in 2026 is shaped by a blend of localised conditions, economic pressures, and government interventions. While challenges persist, particularly in terms of affordability and supply constraints, the overall outlook remains one of cautious optimism, with steady growth expected in many regions.