Australian home values continue to rise in April despite high interest rates and inflation

Australian home values rose 0.6% in April, marking the 15th consecutive month of growth, according to CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI). The increase added approximately $4,720 to the national median dwelling value, despite high interest rates, low sentiment, and ongoing cost of living pressures.

Tim Lawless, CoreLogic’s research director, said, “We aren’t seeing any signs of heat coming out of the Perth housing market just yet, in fact the quarterly pace of growth, at 6.0%, is approaching the cyclical highs seen during the pandemic when interest rates were at rock bottom.”

He noted that the pace of gains is slowing across the Brisbane market, easing below 1% to 0.9% in April for the first time in 12 months, possibly due to affordability pressures following a nearly $300,000 increase in values since the onset of COVID in March 2020.

The persistent rise in housing values, despite various downside factors, can be attributed to the insufficient supply of housing relative to demand. CoreLogic estimates that over the four weeks ending April 28th, there were 76,265 homes listed for sale across the combined capitals, 17.6% below the previous five-year average. Simultaneously, the number of residential sales in April was estimated to be 2.4% higher than the previous five-year average for this time of the year.

“Such a mismatch between available supply and demonstrated demand is keeping markets skewed in favour of sellers in most cities,” Mr Lawless said.

The undersupply of well-located housing is recognised as a national crisis, with substantial hurdles blocking a rapid and significant housing supply response, including high construction and holding costs, as well as tight labour supply for construction-related trades.

Mr Lawless expects housing demand and supply to eventually converge, driven by slowing population growth and, at some stage, a ramp-up in residential construction activity. However, given persistently low levels of dwelling approvals, the timeline for a material increase in completed housing supply remains distant.

With the prospect of interest rates staying “higher for longer” and growing downside risks for housing markets, housing values are likely to be propped up by the mismatch between housing supply and demand in the near future.

Key findings from CoreLogic’s April HVI include:

• National home values lifted 0.6% in April, with prices now 11.1% higher than the January 2023 trough.
• Perth recorded the fastest monthly growth at 2.0%, followed by Adelaide at 1.3% and Brisbane at 0.9%.
• Almost every capital city is recording stronger growth conditions across the lower value range of the market, with regional markets showing a slightly stronger quarterly growth rate than their capital city counterparts over the past five months.
• Rents were up 0.8% nationally in April, with the national gross rental yield rising to 3.75%, the highest reading since October 2019.